How much could your app earn? Model it in a minute
Start from RevenueCat's 2026 benchmarks, adjust downloads, trials, conversion, prices, plan mix and churn, and see monthly recurring revenue, 12-month net revenue and lifetime value after Apple's commission.
How to use the revenue calculator
Start by picking a benchmark: hard paywall or freemium. The calculator fills in typical trial and conversion rates from RevenueCat's 2026 research. Then adjust each slider to match your plans: downloads in your first month, monthly growth, the share of installs that start a trial, trial-to-paid conversion, monthly and annual prices, the share of subscribers who choose annual and monthly churn. Choose Apple's commission rate, and the chart shows 12 months of monthly recurring revenue after fees.
Change one variable at a time to see what matters most for your app. For most subscription apps, conversion and churn move revenue far more than price.
Turn this into a real app
Your tool results are a great start. Paste your website and Muaz.io builds the app around them.
The formula behind the model
For each month, the calculator estimates new paying subscribers as downloads multiplied by the trial-start rate multiplied by trial-to-paid conversion. Those subscribers are split between annual and monthly plans using your mix. Monthly subscribers churn at your monthly rate; annual subscribers are kept for the 12-month window. Monthly recurring revenue is monthly subscribers times the monthly price, plus annual subscribers times the annual price divided by twelve, after Apple's commission.
| Input | What it represents |
|---|---|
| Downloads | New installs in month one, growing each month by your growth rate |
| Trial start rate | Share of installs that start a free trial |
| Trial-to-paid | Share of trials that convert to a paid plan |
| Monthly and annual price | Your list prices before commission |
| Annual mix | Share of new subscribers choosing the annual plan |
| Monthly churn | Share of monthly subscribers who cancel each month |
| Commission | 15% or 30%, depending on your Apple programme and subscriber tenure |
What the 2026 benchmarks say
RevenueCat's State of Subscription Apps 2026 is one of the largest public datasets on subscription apps. Several findings are especially useful for modelling:
- Paywall model. Hard paywalls converted trials to paid at a median of about 10.7% by day 35, compared with about 2.1% for freemium apps, roughly five times higher. Revenue per install at day 60 was about $3.09 for hard paywalls versus $0.38 for freemium.
- Trial length. Trials of 17 to 32 days converted at about 42.5%, compared with 25.5% for trials of four days or less, a lift of about 70%.
- Annual plans. Around 35% of annual subscription cancellations happen in the first month, which makes the first weeks critical.
- AI apps. AI-powered apps showed higher first-year value per payer but their monthly plans churned faster than non-AI apps.
Benchmarks vary widely by category, price and audience. Use them to sanity-check your plan, then replace them with your own data.
Levers that move revenue most
Conversion. Doubling trial-to-paid conversion doubles new subscriber revenue. It is shaped by your paywall, the value users feel during the trial and the trial length. Check your paywall with the free paywall teardown.
Churn. Halving monthly churn roughly doubles the lifetime of a monthly subscriber. Habit loops, notifications people want and regular content updates reduce churn.
Annual mix. Annual plans lock in revenue and reduce churn, but they must offer clear savings. Preselecting the annual plan is common among top apps.
Downloads. More installs help, but paying to acquire users who never convert only increases costs. Fix conversion before scaling acquisition.
Price. Price changes matter, but they interact with conversion. Test prices carefully with real users.
Free: Subscription Benchmarks Cheat Sheet
The 2026 conversion, trial, pricing and churn benchmarks on one page, with what each means for your app.
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Apple's commission explained
Apple's standard commission on digital goods and subscriptions is 30%. Two important exceptions reduce it to 15%: developers enrolled in the App Store Small Business Program, which applies to developers earning below a revenue threshold, and auto-renewable subscriptions after a subscriber has completed a year of paid service. Physical goods sold in an app, such as clothing or food, use your normal payment provider and are not subject to Apple's commission.
The calculator defaults to 15% because most new developers qualify for the Small Business Program. Switch to 30% to see the standard case.
Example scenarios
| Scenario | Downloads (month 1) | Trial start | Trial-to-paid | Monthly / annual | Annual mix | Rough outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niche hard paywall | 5,000 | 20% | 10.7% | $9.99 / $49.99 | 55% | A steady base of subscribers by month 12 |
| Freemium at scale | 50,000 | 35% | 2.1% | $7.99 / $39.99 | 40% | Revenue depends heavily on volume |
| AI utility | 10,000 | 25% | 12% | $14.99 / $69.99 | 50% | High value per payer, watch churn |
Plug these into the calculator to see the full 12-month curves. The point is not the exact numbers but how differently each model behaves.
How top apps earn
For context, the highest-earning apps operate at a different scale. Appfigures estimated that TikTok earned about $300 million and ChatGPT about $201 million in net revenue worldwide in May 2026 alone. Most successful independent apps earn far less, but they use the same building blocks: a clear paywall, a habit loop and relentless iteration. Our top charts page breaks down their patterns.
From model to plan
Once you have a model you believe, turn it into a plan with targets for each lever. For example: reach a 20% trial-start rate by improving onboarding, a 10% trial-to-paid rate by testing a longer trial and a 6% monthly churn rate by adding reminders and a weekly content update. Each target becomes an experiment in your growth plan.
Common modelling mistakes
Using top-app numbers. Benchmarks from huge apps do not apply to a new app with no brand.
Ignoring churn. Revenue models without churn look great and are always wrong.
Forgetting the commission. Always model net revenue after Apple's fee.
Assuming growth is free. If growth comes from paid ads, include acquisition cost per install.
Never updating. Replace assumptions with real data after the first month.
Let Muaz.io build the paywall too
Muaz.io designs paywalls and onboarding using these same benchmarks, sets up subscriptions with Apple's in-app purchase system and runs experiments on trial length, pricing and placement after launch. Paste your website or idea into the builder at the top of this page to see your app and its paywall on a live iPhone.
Adding acquisition cost to the model
If you plan to buy installs through ads, add customer acquisition cost to your thinking. Divide your monthly ad spend by the installs it produces to get cost per install, then compare it with revenue per install from the calculator. If revenue per install over a sensible payback period is lower than cost per install, scaling ads loses money. In that case, improve conversion and retention first, then revisit paid acquisition. Organic channels such as ASO, content and referrals have no direct cost per install, which is why the best early growth usually comes from them.
Pricing experiments to try
Price is worth testing, but carefully. Common experiments include a higher annual price with a stronger discount message, a weekly plan for apps with short, intense use cases, a lifetime option for loyal users and regional pricing that reflects local purchasing power. Apple lets you set prices by country and change them over time. Test one change at a time on new users and watch conversion, refunds and churn together, not revenue alone.
Monthly versus annual: a closer look
Annual plans improve cash flow and lower churn, but they need a clear incentive and a strong first month, since many annual cancellations happen early. Monthly plans lower the barrier to subscribe but churn faster. Most top apps offer both and preselect the annual plan with a visible saving. Use the annual mix slider in the calculator to see how much revenue shifts as more subscribers choose annual, then design your paywall to make the better-value plan the natural choice.
Reading the chart
The chart shows monthly recurring revenue after Apple's commission. A curve that rises steeply and then flattens means churn is catching up with new subscribers; improving retention will lift the whole curve. A curve that keeps rising means acquisition and retention are in balance. If the curve barely moves, conversion is the first thing to fix. Compare a few scenarios side by side to build intuition before you commit to a plan.
Turning the model into targets
The most useful output of this calculator is not a revenue number but a set of targets. Decide which lever you will improve first, set a realistic goal for it and plan the experiment that will get you there. Then re-run the model with your real numbers each month. Over a few cycles, the model becomes a living picture of your business, and the gap between plan and reality tells you exactly where to focus next.
Revenue models beyond subscriptions
Subscriptions are the dominant model for many apps, but they are not the only one. Consumable purchases, such as credits, boosts or extra lives, work well in games and some utilities, where users pay for more of something. Non-consumable purchases unlock a feature permanently and suit tools with a one-time value. Paid apps charge upfront, which can work for niche professional tools with strong reputations. Advertising monetises large free audiences, often alongside an ad-free subscription. Many successful apps combine two models, for example a subscription for power users and consumables for occasional needs. This calculator focuses on subscriptions; model other revenue separately and add it to the total.
Subscription metrics glossary
MRR. Monthly recurring revenue: the normalised monthly value of all active subscriptions.
ARPU. Average revenue per user, usually per paying user per month.
LTV. Lifetime value: the total net revenue you expect from a subscriber over their lifetime.
Churn. The share of subscribers who cancel in a period.
Trial-to-paid conversion. The share of free trials that become paid subscriptions.
RPI. Revenue per install, a useful metric for comparing acquisition channels and paywall models.
Payback period. How long it takes for revenue from a user to cover the cost of acquiring them.
Sensitivity analysis: what moves the needle
To understand your model, change one input at a time by the same relative amount, say 20%, and note the change in month-12 MRR. In most scenarios, trial-to-paid conversion and churn produce the biggest swings, followed by the annual mix, with price and download growth close behind. That ranking tells you where to focus your first experiments. If conversion is the biggest lever, start with your paywall and onboarding; if churn is, start with your habit loop and content cadence.
Benchmarks are averages, not targets
It is tempting to treat a benchmark as the number you must hit. Remember that a median is the middle of a wide distribution: half of apps do better, half do worse. Your category, price point, audience and product quality all shift where you land. Use benchmarks to check whether your assumptions are plausible, not as promises. If your model only works with conversion rates far above the benchmark, it is a sign to rethink the plan before you build.
Planning for the first year
A realistic first-year plan for a new subscription app often looks like this: months one to three focus on activation and conversion with a small, engaged audience; months four to six focus on retention and the first paid acquisition tests; months seven to twelve scale the channels that pay back and expand to new markets. The revenue curve in the calculator usually starts slowly and accelerates as subscribers accumulate. Do not be discouraged by small early numbers; focus on improving the levers month by month.
Subscription revenue in different categories
Subscription economics vary a lot by category. Productivity and AI tools often command higher prices because they save time for professionals, but they face fast churn if the value is occasional. Health and fitness apps benefit from strong seasonal acquisition in January but must work hard on retention through the year. Education apps, especially language learning, rely on streaks and long-term goals that support annual plans. Photo and video tools convert well when templates help beginners succeed quickly. Utilities such as storage or VPN services enjoy low churn when they solve an ongoing need. When you set assumptions, think about how your category behaves, and look at the patterns on our top charts page.
Free trials versus introductory prices
Apple supports several introductory offers: a free trial, a discounted price for a set period or a pay-upfront discount. Free trials are the most common and easiest to understand. Introductory prices, such as the first month at a lower price, can attract users who are wary of trials that auto-renew. The best choice depends on your audience and how quickly they experience value. RevenueCat's 2026 research on trial length suggests that if you use a trial, giving users enough time to build a habit often pays off. Test both approaches if you can.
Refunds and involuntary churn
Two factors are often missing from simple models. Refunds, requested through Apple, reduce revenue, especially for annual plans bought by mistake; clear paywall copy and reminders before a trial ends reduce them. Involuntary churn happens when a payment fails, for example because a card expired; Apple's billing retry and grace period features recover some of these subscriptions. If your real churn is higher than expected, check how much of it is involuntary before changing your product.
Using the calculator with your team
The calculator is a useful conversation tool. In a planning session, start with the benchmark scenario, then ask each team member which lever they believe they can move and by how much. Product might target conversion through a better onboarding, marketing might target downloads and content might target churn through a weekly release. Model each proposal and agree on the two or three with the biggest impact. Then turn them into experiments with owners and dates. Re-run the model at the end of each month with real data to see whether the plan is on track.
From calculator to a full growth plan
When you build with Muaz.io, the Growth Studio extends this model with your real analytics once the app is live: actual trial starts, conversion by paywall version, churn by plan and revenue per install by channel. It proposes experiments for the weakest lever and shows the expected impact using the same logic as this calculator. Paste your website or idea into the builder at the top of this page to start, or read the paywall teardown to strengthen the screen that matters most for revenue.
Worked example: an AI writing assistant
Suppose an AI writing app expects 8,000 downloads in its first month, growing 10% a month. With a hard paywall, 25% of installs start a trial and 12% of trials convert. Prices are $12.99 a month or $59.99 a year, with half of subscribers choosing annual. Because AI apps tend to see faster monthly churn, the founder models 10% monthly churn. Entering these numbers shows steady MRR growth through the year, but the sensitivity test reveals that cutting churn from 10% to 7% adds more month-12 revenue than a 20% increase in downloads. The plan therefore prioritises a weekly reason to return, such as saved templates and a writing streak, before increasing ad spend. That is the kind of insight the calculator is designed to produce.
Final word
Every revenue model is wrong in the details and useful in the direction. Use this calculator to choose your priorities, then let real data replace the assumptions as soon as it arrives.
Checklist before you trust your model
Your assumptions come from a credible source or your own data. Churn is included and realistic for your category. Apple's commission is applied. Annual renewals are treated conservatively. Acquisition costs are considered if growth comes from ads. And you have tested how sensitive the result is to each lever. If all six are true, the model is ready to guide decisions.
Model it, test it, then let real numbers lead the way.
Good luck with your launch.
Still have questions about app revenue calculator? Ask the assistant inside the Muaz.io builder. It knows your project, your competitors and every source cited in this guide, and it answers in plain language.
Questions about app revenue calculator
Short, direct answers. Still curious? Ask in the builder; the assistant knows your project.
How accurate is this calculator?
It is a planning model, not a forecast. It applies your assumptions consistently so you can see how each lever affects revenue. Real results depend on your category, audience, pricing and product quality.
What trial-to-paid rate should I use?
RevenueCat's 2026 research reports a median day-35 trial-to-paid conversion of about 10.7% for hard paywalls and about 2.1% for freemium apps. Use those as starting points and replace them with your own data as soon as you have it.
What commission does Apple take?
Apple's standard commission on in-app purchases and subscriptions is 30%. Developers in the App Store Small Business Program pay 15%, and auto-renewable subscriptions drop to 15% after a subscriber's first year of paid service. Check Apple's current terms for your situation.
How is LTV calculated here?
For monthly plans, lifetime is estimated as one divided by the monthly churn rate, multiplied by the monthly price after commission. For annual plans, the model assumes an average of about 1.6 years of paid service. Adjust churn to see how sensitive LTV is.
Does the calculator include advertising revenue?
No. It models subscriptions only. If your app also earns from ads or one-time purchases, add those separately.
Can Muaz.io help me hit these numbers?
Yes. Muaz.io designs paywalls and onboarding using the same benchmarks and its Growth Studio runs experiments on trial length, pricing and paywall placement after launch.
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Read the guideWhere our numbers come from
Third-party figures are estimates published by the sources below. Prices and rules change; check the source before you decide.
- RevenueCat: State of Subscription Apps 2026www.revenuecat.com/state-of-subscription-apps
- RevenueCat blog: 2026 report highlightswww.revenuecat.com/blog/growth/subscription-app-trends-benchmarks-2026
- Apple Small Business Programdeveloper.apple.com/app-store/small-business-program
- Apple: auto-renewable subscriptionsdeveloper.apple.com/app-store/subscriptions
- Appfigures: top apps, May 2026appfigures.com/resources/insights/most-downloaded-highest-earning-apps-may-2026
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